Sunday, June 8, 2008

Lies, Statistics and Predictions of the Future

Credit goes to Deirdre Shesgreen and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch for today's article, "Global Warming:  Numbers game confounds debate."  The article begins by quoting Lincoln Moses who said "there are no facts about the future."  Such an admission in the context of global warming from liberals or from big media is rare but welcome.  

The meat of Shesgreen's article looks at the vastly different predictions of the future included in two think tank studies of the potential effects of the recently defeated global warming will in the senate.  One of those studies, conducted by the American Council for Capital Formation, predicted doom and gloom while the other, produced by the International Resources Group for the Natural Resources Defense Council, predicted sunshine and light.  That study, for example, predicted that demand for oil would drop and the country would get 50-60% of its electricity needs from "renewable" sources.  Yeah, right.  Kit Bond (R-Mo.) laughed off this dubious claim telling fellow senators that, "no one in their right mind believes we will go to generating 50 percent of our power from wind and solar."

Shesgreen characterized both studies as spin.  And "such spin," she wrote "is nothing new in Washington, where consultants earn fat fees to come up with talking points, strategy memos and 'facts' to fit any partisan viewpoint."

This analysis put brought Benjamin Disraeli's words to mind . . . "There are three kinds of lies:  lies, damn lies and statistics."

Don't trust what any politician tells you about what will happen in the future.  Most of them probably had money on Big Brown yesterday.

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