Thursday, September 2, 2010

Crystal Ball says . . . Republicans take the House of Representatives in November and may take the Senate too!

Get out your crystal balls.  Not just any crystal balls, though, only the new "Crystal Ball" prediction from the "typically cautious [so says U.S. News & World Report] Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics."  Sabato says that the GOP has a "good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net."  (Link to U.S. News report here.)  Republicans only need a gain of 40 for a majority.

Honestly, in my opinion, it would take massive complacency, fraud, or a big October/November surprise to  keep the House in Democrats' hands.

But the real news is in the Sabato's Senate predictions where, to gain control, Republicans need a net gain of 10 seats.  9 would split the Senate down the middle but vice president Joe Biden could break the tie in favor of the Democrats.  And gaining 10 seats when only 19 seats currently held by Democrats are up for election is a tall order but according to Sabato:

"In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats.  Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react).  . . . The inescapable conclusion is that the Senate is on the bubble, with only a slight lean at Labor Day toward Democratic retention."

So, why should we care about Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball?  According to U.S. News, "Sabato has a near flawless record of accurate predictions."

Don't count any chickens yet.  Don't get complacent.  Don't start infighting.

Fuel up the GOP bandwagon and push for a Republican rout in November.

In Missouri, that means Roy Blunt!  Roy Blunt!  Roy Blunt!

For those of you reading from across the river in Illinois, it means Mark Kirk!  Mark Kirk!  Mark Kirk!

THE most important thing that you can do for your country in 2010 is vote Republican on November 2. I can't say that enough.

1 comment:

thetimman said...

ANOTHER Robin Carnahan pic?